Background of 3 swans on a lake at the cusp of dusk or dawn, that is an unknown among many other things of th universe.  The hues go from blue to indigo to purple to pink.

Welcome to the haus

Tuesday, 8 March 2016

Michigan & Mississippi:Get Out There Voting Peeps: Democrats & Republicans, Heck You Too Independents!

welcome to a new day with fresh challenges & so much to gain today for Sanders supporters

9 min read
」Post Art

Dominance by Josh Byer an acrylic & ink on canvas painting of a surreal vividly coloured street scape.

"Dominance20" X 24" acrylic & inks on canvasby Josh Byer. 2015, Surreal, Psychedelic
  Literal description: A beyond neon (with a red hues dominant palette, no pun.) vividly coloured psychedelic street scape. It's a choatic scene not because of the colour palette but more so the aesthetic of the many parallel strokes that bind & form off one another.  An oil slick!   yes that is what describes the palette best.  An array of figures painted in an seemingly haphazardly series seems reminiscent of a shamanic Where's Waldo. Make no mistake nothing about this piece is haphazard.  Like listing the faces in Where's Waldo likewise doing the same for Dominance would be an exhaustive process & would take time away that's better spent appreciating Byer's artistry.

『  I'm a registered Republican, I only seem liberal because I believe that hurricanes are caused by high barometric pressure and not gay marriage. ― Aaron Sorkin   

get out & vote if you're Michigan || Mississppi || Idaho || Hawaii

 『  I hope somehow that quote makes it to the mind of every Republican heading out to vote in the Michigan GOP nomination today.  It wasn't long ago that the GOP wasn't a schismatic group of historic Neo-Cons, Tea Partiers, Trump Fanatics (not all whom are "Tea Partiers"), Theoconservatives, Pat Buchanan Paleoconservatives, Rand Paulites (yeah they still exist) & so forth et al.  The GOP is on a path of self destruction currently.  Can the establishment push off enough voters off the Trump Train & force Trump to lose out on grabbing the needed 1,237  delegates to avoid a contested convention? No, even with 52% of available delegates up for the taking after March 1st the results have gone in nobody but Trump's favour.  Even Ted Cruz who made significant wins on Super Tuesday does not look as good as the media reports.  Cruz's base in the  evangelical voters in the Southern States, along with conservative sections of the Midwest, & Texas have all largely voted already.  Lets look at the numbers.  Of the major Midwest states yet to contest namely Ohio & Missouri are where Cruz can look to up his delegate quite significantly at around 118~ as per fivethirtyeights rough outline to the path of nomination. 

Ted Cruz at the 2013 Values Voter Summit with a coy smug. Taken by Jamelle Bouie October 11, 2013
Crazy enough to make moderates think Trump might not be so bad...
Photo: Jamelle Bouie CC 2.0

Now this pales woely inadequate to Trump's likely gains in the same timeframe. Now remember that the fivethirtyeight numbers on the last link is a delegate target.  The needed delegates for the candidate to remain on path.  I predict Trump to soundly beat the fivethirtyeight targets by siphoning voters who are jumping off the establishment ship.  When it's all more apparent that the Rubio & Kasich vote is split   Rubio can no longer be trusted to perform despite recently performing well in Puerto Rico it's not enough to swing momentum in an already dying campaign.  What spoke to me most strongly on the validity of Rubio as the establishment front-runner (which no longer exists really, barring a completely unlikely & ridiculous Rubio resurgence or a meteoric rise of Kasich) was Rubio's disaster in Maine.  

Kasich Sitting on a white armrest chair. John Kasich at New Hampshire Education Summit The Seventy-Four August 19th, 2015 by Michael Vadon.
Destroyer of Dreams - John Kasich
Photo: Michael Vadon CC 2.0

For him to gain not a single delegate & for Kasich to effectively be the Rubio electoral surrogate spells the end for Rubio. Some might say but what about Florida?  What about it?  The Republican race is too crowded & has been already too crowded for anyone but Trump to outright to take the nomination if current trends continue.  Hypothetical, Rubio wins Florida even by a significant margin what other state could he take?  California?  Perhaps if Rubio can make it June 7th.  Which I doubt, remember folks this is the establishment choice; someone who doesn't have the same grassroots effort like Sanders to keep a floundering campaign above water till better days. He has to answer to someone & those someones aren't too particularly pleased with his run of form in this race thus far.  Rubio had crossed the Rubicon on March 1st & begun to drown since then but it's been so gradual that none have noticed & it's too late for him pull him up.  




I predict Trump to soundly beat the fivethirtyeight targets by siphoning aomw voters who are jumping off the establishment ship to more less insane(see Ted Cruz) pastures. Some of those jumping ship will be on Kasich wagon though.
 Trump  victory electorally.

20.1~/13.5  Trump  / Kasich Cruz / Rubio popular split
42/0/0/0 delegate split


I predict Trump to skip along to a super majority victory in the popular. None of the other candidates will break past the 15% threshold.
massive  Trump  victory electorally & popularly.

87.1~/5.6~/4.9~/2.6~  Trump  Cruz Kasich Rubio popular split
40/0/0/0 delegate split


I'm going against the grain here & calling a relatively tight race between Trump & Cruz, 
no Rubio & Kasich they won't make it past the 20% threshold :( 
a moderate  Cruz  victory electorally.

48.6~/42.4~/6.3~/2.7~  Cruz  Trump Kasich Rubio popular split
17/15/0/0 delegate split

I predict a tight race between Trump & Cruz with Rubio gaining some & Kasich makes an appearance. 
minor  Trump  victory electorally.

~/4.4  Trump  Rubio Cruz Kasich popular split
7/6/5/1 delegate split



I predict a Sanders upset in Michigan with a healthy 10+ point margin but it'll still be a close affair. 
a tight  Sanders  victory electorally & popularly.

56.3~/43.7~  Sanders  Clinton popular split

73/57 delegate split


I'm convinced  Clinton  has Mississippi in the bag. it's question of much can Bernie score off her through rather than how wide she'll win by.

assured  Clinton  victory electorally & popularly.

59.2~/40.8~  Clinton  Sanders popular split

21/15 delegate split


『   The story on the Democrats side is far less interesting.  Clinton without a doubt will clinch Mississippi owing thanks to the demographics working out in her favor.  Where Mississippi has the largest numbers of Black proportionate to the rest of the state making up a more than a Mississippians third at 37%.  Sanders has the potential to pull the rug from out under Clinton he can carry the momentum generated during the weekend to make deep inroads into the Great Lake State.  Whose delegates can prove essential to countering Clinton's superdelegate supremacy.   


the # of superdelegates HRC has thus far

    I conclude this post that I won't be writing anything significant until the evening after I'm done at work.  I will be through keeping posted on the race on twitter throughout the day so shoot me a tweet if you want to talk about today's elections & anything Buddha in da haus related - which is like anything & everything so don't be shy ;)  

// Post Complete


  1. Where have you been! No updates for weeks :(
    The nomination races are getting pretty heated too right rn
    Post soon!

    1. BurnedOutBerners6 December 2016 at 23:02

      this is what happens when BernieBros bern out.