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Sunday, 6 March 2016

High Turnout @ Maine Caucus Indicative of Strong Sanders Grassroots Efforts & What's Next To Come

」Ear pleasure for your reading: Pivotal times call for Hi-NRG Maine Hype or for something less thumping is some chillwave Buddha in da haus tempo

7 min

"Prager Straße" (Prague Street) Oil on canvas & collage by Otto Dix1920, Dada
  Literal description: Scene of two mutilated characters one of rich & one of poor.  Both fastened with prosthetics but of varying quality; the well to do man struts gingerly past the beggar; who is n the midst of receiving money. 
  A store window for a prosthetists shop is in background.  Further figures around the periphery of the center: notably a wooden hand with a cane & the bosom of a pump wearing lady. 

『  Fortis cadere, cedere non potest.

A brave man may fall, but he cannot yield.

- Latin proverb   

    Context:  It's a nippy ° / 35 ° f  From social media all over the internet it's easy to see the large turnout for the Maine Caucus which is simply beautiful.  & the cold weather did not stop Downeasters from heading to their caucuses - which if you have not gone & are eligible to vote than please make your way now, geez louise.    』 

It's awe inspiring to see such a massive turnout for democracy.  Ironically for a arguably unndemocratic system.

The people will not be deterred.

 Absolutely staggering long lines.

A familiar sight all around the state today.

Scenes that all Sanders want to see repeated in the forthcoming contests.

Its clear who is leading the charge in Maine.

  It's Bernie Sanders.

『   Now it comes with a bit of hubris but well placed confidence that Sanders has wrapped up Maine.  The question is by how far of margin and thus how much ground can Sanders make up?  I last prediction placed Sanders at 19 to Clinton's 11 - 3 of which are assured by the superdelegate pledges by Maggie Allen, Chellie Pingree & Peggie Schaffer.  It's State Senator Troy Jackson, of Allagash who is the sole superdelegate supporting Sanders explicitly prior to the proceedings of today's caucus.  That leaves State Democratic Party Chairman Phil Bartlet as the remaining superdelegate who has not public endorse either candidate.  Bartlet looks to wait for the results of the caucus before declaring his support & his leaning to go with what the caucus decides.  With how Sanders support has demonstrated today it's sure chance that Bartlet will call his vote for the Vermonter.  As Maine's caucus delegation votes are tired proportionally to the vote.  Here's a list of the potential delegate gain Sanders can achieve with the superdelegates above split 3: 2, advantage to Clinton.   

#1 1/3 Split 
Sanders Clinton popular split
19/11 delegate split

#2 4/5 Split
80.0~/20.0~ Sanders Clinton popular split
20/10 delegate split

#3 4.25/5 Split
85.0~/15.0~ Sanders Clinton popular split
21/9 delegate split

#4 4.5/5 Split90.0~/10.0~ Sanders Clinton popular split
23/7 delegate split

#5 Minimum Needed for outright win of all free delegates98.5 /1.5 Sanders Clinton popular split
23/7 delegate split


『   With comparatively low number of delegates at play if Sanders woutright won Maine (unlikely) grabbing 23 delegates it's still a drop in the ocean compared to loses from Tuesday.  Which would be just a 4 delegate gain in a double digit delegate deficit.   However the potential momentum boon is what the biggest gain the Sander's camp can look to leverage coming into Monday.  With 3 of 4 primary wins & an absolute trumping of Clinton in Maine this can be a powerful catalyst to surge Sanders even further ahead of forecasts in the coming Midwest states.  Where Sanders can rely on demographics who've been more supportive of his platform in states with lower nonwhite populations & more shares of young, liberal & working-class Democrats.  This surge can assure Sanders to solidly win the Midwest as Clinton has done in the traditionally Southern Republican states.  Sanders has strong support in both California & New York but he's going to need a solid performance is the road leading to April 19th (New York) & June 7th (California + 5 others).   


as the same it was this morning, 

I predict a strong outcome for Sanders; ultimately to a strong Sanders victory electorally.

Sanders Clinton popular split
20/10 delegate split


 If Sanders do what he did in Vermont today the implications could be incredibly far reaching.

// Post Complete


  1. Everyone please let me know your thoughts on what implications a strong Sanders' victory in Maine might have for the rest of the campaign!

    1. Frank Horowitz7 March 2016 at 15:52

      Don't you think your potential ending numbers were too high? As we can see from the results even though only 90% are reported the split is hovering around 65/35 which is pretty far off from 75 or even 85 for that matter.

  2. How can there be only be a 4 delegate gain from + 15% votes?

  3. My sister Anna Marie lives in Portland and tells me it took her gosh darn forever to just get inside the the school gym her caucus station was at. These photos are unbelievable!!! I really enjoyed your coverage on twitter by the way! Keep it up =)

  4. Bernie takes Maine & is going to take every other state after this! #feelthebern #hillaryout